Google Doubles Q4 Revenue to $1.03 billion

By Herb

Google’s fourth quarter revenues in 2004 doubled from the same quarter for 2003.
( )

Not to be a bubble-burster (because I’m a big fan of Google), but I wouldn’t get too excited about this. I don’t know a ton about picking stocks so don’t go selling or buying any shares because of me, but I do have to point out that:

– none of us have any clue as to how big the online Adsense market is for Google. How many more business should be using pay-per-click ads that aren’t already? Since most of Google’s revenue comes from pay-per-click, that’s the first question that should be answered. It could be that the market is nearly saturated, just starting, or stuck somewhere in the middle. No one knows for sure though. I’d guess that the Adsense market is just coming over the middle hump, but there will be another Adsense-like product addition that opens it up and starts everything all over again for Google.

– ” Growth in margins was due to large renegotiations of revenue share contracts
Google’s most significant partner is AOL. Renegotiation on that deal took time and the improvement in margins from it are largely one-time. There are no more AOL type contracts to renegotitate.” ( ) That’s something people seem to be overlooking, and simultaneously, it’s also feasible that Google could win or sign new contracts with multiple mid-sized companies.